Internet tradition holds that any users who say the word “Oscars” more than three times during the months of January or February are required either to prognosticate the winners or to divulge who’d get their votes if they were eligible to exercise that power. This year, the evening before the 86th Academy Awards go live on ABC, I must uphold that custom or else the makers of the Paranormal Activity series win.

If I were a card-carrying member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the following list would represent my hypothetical ballot selections, no less subjective and arbitrary than the average AMPAS member’s official ballot. These are not my predictions as to who will win, because that’s not my forte. Betting on me will bring you misery and cost you your life savings. I’m aware of many of my deficiencies, and Oscar-guessing is one of them. If more than one-third of these match the actual results, it’s because my fifty-year-old self acquired the technology and the bitterness to travel back in time and sabotage the sacred PricewaterhouseCoopers envelopes.

On with the pretend ballot:

Best Original Screenplay: Nominees seen: 4. American Hustle took the most literary approach and kept the most plates spinning in such complicated patterns.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nominees seen: 4. With 12 Years a Slave John Ridley whittled Solomon Northup’s long, agonizing ordeal down to its most resonant moments, while at the same time finding a narrative arc sweeping enough to overcome the anticlimactic rescue and leave a wound in this privileged viewer.

Best Visual Effects: Nominees seen: 4. I thought more highly of the Desolation of Smaug roller-coaster express than most peers, but Gravity is the only nominee that spun my head and left me in a state of how’d-they-do-that astonishment.

Best Sound Editing: Nominees seen: 3. It might be a dark horse, but I’d side with the oceanic backdrops, the frantic final half-hour, and the general maritime ambiance of Captain Phillips.

Best Sound Mixing: Nominees seen: 3. In the case of Gravity, the toughest trick was deciding when not to use sound, and when to allow some to sneak in through the cracks. A rare case of science triumphing over artistic license.

Live-Action Short Film Nominees seen: all 5. Early bets seem to be on “That Wasn’t Me”, which I found too brutal to be inspirational. The spousal-abuse escape plan of “Just Before Losing Everything” found a way to celebrate strength of resolve without resorting to degradation.

Best Animated Short Film: Nominees seen: all 5. “Get a Horse!” and “Mr. Hublot” were technically impressive in their respective media, but the whimsical charm of “Room on the Broom” won me over. And by “whimsical charm” I mean that darn cat.

Best Production Design: Nominees seen: 4. American Hustle appeared to be filmed in a series of swank Hollywood hotels, Gravity was largely CG, and Her was all pricey apartments with CG flourishes. Winner by default: 12 Years a Slave and its convincing use of poverty, shacks, and real plantations.

Best Original Song: Nominees seen: 2, but all five can be found on YouTube and other online sources. If Idina Menzel’s sensational “Let It Go” doesn’t win, the entire evening is a sham. If Pharrell Williams’ “Happy” wins, I might keep my in-house riot low-key.

Best Original Score: Nominees seen: 3. I’m listening to the Philomena soundtrack while I’m typing. It’s, y’know, it’s nice, but Alexander Desplat didn’t have to bear as much weight as Steven Price did through the lengthy space silences of Gravity.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Nominees seen: 1. Dallas Buyers Club it is, and not necessarily by default. Any film competing against Bad Grandpa and The Lone Ranger for any reason in life deserves to win.

Best Foreign Language Film: Nominees seen: 0. I’ve seen a trailer for Mads Mikkelsen in The Hunt and heard good things about Omar. Coin flip goes to Danish Hannibal.

Best Film Editing: Nominees seen: all 5. Gravity showy tracking shots for the win, though that Captain Phillips finale was quite the impressive workout.

Best Documentary Short Subject: Nominees seen: 0. These are released theatrically in a few markets every year, but for some reason Indianapolis never makes the list. I remember reading one of them was about the Holocaust, always a safe bet in any category, but I forget which one. Rather than spend an hour researching this late at night, I’ll go with “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life” for obscure, irrelevant, private-joke reasons that very few readers will get.

Best Documentary Feature: Nominees seen: 0, but I’ve seen the trailer for the showbiz-background piece 20 Feet from Stardom. That’ll have to do.

Best Costume Design: Nominees seen: 2. It feels wrong rewarding American Hustle‘s disco-glam razzle-dazzle over 12 Years a Slave‘s earnest rags ‘n’ tatters, but that’s kind of how I’m leaning.

Best Cinematography: Nominees seen: only 2, surprisingly. Nebraska‘s black-‘n’-white ethos had its place and served its purpose, but Gravity was Gravity.

Best Animated Feature Film: Nominees seen: 3. Based on trailers alone I expect someday to track down both Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises and the adorable-looking Ernest and Celestine. Until then, I’m with Frozen. I hope you appreciate the few minutes’ worth of effort I spent on not finishing that sentence with a bad pun.

Best Supporting Actress: Nominees seen: 3. June Squibb had all the funniest moments in Nebraska, but it’s another case of a character with scant screen time and minimal nuance blustering their way into being noticed. Those can be fun to watch, but slapping a “Best” label on it seems generous to a fault. It’s just as well — it would be shameful to overlook Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave, so let’s not.

Best Supporting Actor: Nominees seen: all 5, all bringing their A-game. Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club was inarguably the most transformative and heartbreaking.

Best Actress: Nominees seen: 3. I wish I’d gotten around to seeing Cate Blanchett’s performance in Blue Jasmine for myself, but I haven’t yet. I wouldn’t protest if either Amy Adams or Sandra Bullock took this one home, but I appreciated the nuanced paradox that Judi Dench captured in the role of a lower-class survivor whose faith and trust in God through even the darkest of times gave her the strength to face her doubts and travails with grace and dignity, and to forgive the oppressors who overstepped their bounds.

Best Actor: Nominees seen: 5. I’ve been wanting to see Chiwetel Ejiofor win awards and accolades for years, but Matthew McConaughey’s work in Dallas Buyers Club was total, physically extreme, top-to-bottom career reinvention. I’m beginning to feel white guilt for not aggressively advocating a 12 Years sweep.

Best Director: Nominees seen: 5. Ignoring the previous sentence, Steve McQueen would have my objective vote for shepherding 12 Years into a cohesive, harrowing, ensemble tour de force.

Best Picture: Nominees seen: all 9, per my annual quest. Have you seen the “for your consideration” ads for 12 Years? They sport the simple slogan, “It’s time.” That’s their sole message: vote for 12 Years because of ripped-from-the-headlines social-commentary reasons, regardless of any intrinsic artistic merits. I’m well aware that a large percentage of Oscars are won for reasons other than quality work, but that’s the sort of blatant anti-art sentiment that tends to sway my vote in opposite directions. Congratulations, Gravity.

Remember: the 86th Academy Awards. ABC. Sunday, March 2, 2014. 8:30 p.m. EDT. Start writing your jokes now about the long running time before all the easiest punchlines are taken.